What Comes Next?

by Pravin on August 22nd, 2007 in articles, formats.

After a few items of not-so-great news in the last few weeks, the HD DVD camp just scored one of the biggest deals they could to ensure the format’s longevity.

Blu-ray fans are groaning that Paramount and DreamWorks were paid off in various ways, including free advertising promotions. So what? Do you think that the other guys haven’t been up to the same kinds of antics? Do you honestly think that stores freely “chose” Blu-ray with no special considerations whatsoever? Whatever millions any of these companies may have spent or received, it’s “chump change” considering the billions of dollars at stake in both hardware and movies.

It sucks that such shenanigans even have to happen in the first place. It would have been great if all movies had always been available in both HD formats, leaving consumers to make their own choices. It would have been even more wonderful if both formats were compatible with each other, or to have just one format. But it can never work that way because every party involved, even the consumer, puts their own interests first.

I’m glad the HD DVD group had the nerve to pull off such a great deal. It’s obviously good for the HD DVD format and people who already have HD DVD players. It may even be good for the Blu-ray crowd because they have evidence now that HD DVD fights fire with fire, and the studios might put more effort into their discs. Everything that comes out on their format had better be demonstrably superior in a simple 2-minute demo, or else they’re going to lose customers to the far less expensive alternative.

On the other hand, since more titles will now be exclusive to a particular format, studios might decide they don’t need to prove anything in price or quality. If you picked a certain format, then you’re stuck with whatever is put out for that kind of player. We’ll just have to see on this one.

What else can we expect from the newly-prolonged format war? The extra time will bring increasingly affordable dual-format players, and less expensive HD DVD and Blu-ray players too. Toshiba is already nearing the magical price of $200, and how much do you want to bet that there won’t be at least one Blu-ray player at about that same level by Christmas 2008? All of this pressure on features and pricing is good for the overall high-def adoption rate.

It’s true that multiple formats are confusing and probably keep many potential customers away. But this is really just a relatively short-term problem. Things are always confusing when new technology comes out. Many people still don’t know what HDTV is, even though it’s been around for a while now. In fact, a recent poll indicated that far less than half of PS3 owners even knew that it was a Blu-ray player (and that they had unknowingly been drafted into this war).

With this practically guaranteed extension of the format war, I think we’re heading towards everybody owning a dual-format player of some kind in the future. It may seem blasphemous to suggest that there might be discs of both formats in your home in the next 18-24 months, but it’s probably going to happen. And that’s because you and I like to put our own HD interests first.

What do you think comes next?

UPDATE: A couple of sites have picked up on this PC World interview with Paramount CTO, Alan Bell, which makes for interesting reading. He points out plenty of positive things about the HD DVD format which make this a good decision for Paramount.

15 Responses to “What Comes Next?”

  1. Ducoffre Says:

    long life for hd dvd

  2. Tom Says:

    So what? That’s what you can say about Pramount’s buyout? How ignorant can you get? I realize corporations do things like this but the manner in which Paramount abruptly changed tunes when Bluray is clearly selling more is downright a slap in the face to everyone. Corporations may do things like this all the time, and I know they do, but they arnt called under the table deals for nothing. It is so obvious that Paramount was paid a considerable amount of money from HDDVD that it is plain sad for consumers, and corporations as a whole. But, your right, so what. Bluray camp might as well publicly and nondiscretely pay Paramount and Universal 200m each and end the format problem? HaHa That’s what you are endorsing correct? Let’s just all accept that we live in a corporate payoff world and jump on the bandwagon.

  3. chris Says:

    I am happy to see hd-dvd fight back. I along with many others, thought the writing was on the wall, and that everything was going Blu-ray. I chose Blu-ray and own about 30 titles. Looking through the available discs, there are many HD-DVD titles that I would like to have and are exclusive. With the lowering prices, and the Paramount/Dreamworks decision, I am once again looking at HD-DVD players this time to have both formats for good and not choose one. There is obviously going to be no decisive winner in this war except for the manufacturers that produce dual format players. Own one of those babies and once again your shopping for titles, not formats.

  4. Pravin Says:

    Blu-ray just found out that Clark Kent is really Superman. The weakling they had bullied turns out to have some tricks up his sleeve, and the prospect of getting a proper one-on-one fight is not palatable.

    We are not talking about taxpayer money going into government programs, where it might be more warranted to complain about under the table dealings. Companies have no legal obligation to play nice, and we’re seeing HD DVD fight back using some of those same big-business skills that Blu-ray has obviously mastered.

    Tom — What are your feelings about Blockbuster deciding way back in June that they’d only stock one format in their stores? The announcement came out at about the same time that HD DVD sales were skyrocketing due to the instant rebate. It would have made sense for them to say they were making no changes to their policy until later in the year when more customers could generate solid sales data. The fact they continue to carry HD DVD online (and Target sells the 360 HD DVD player and HD DVD movies both online and in stores) indicates that none of these companies truly believe that HD DVD is dead, however they don’t want to pass up the promotion being offered to them.

    A Blu-ray proponent would be expected to come up with an explanation that (1) rationalizes all Blu-ray moves and (2) ignores the fact that HD DVD owners got the shaft from those moves. The same thing applies in this situation with Paramount, but for HD DVD. I know it sucks for Blu-ray that this happened – a big collection of movies just became unavailable and that’s a huge disappointment. But the other exclusivity deals have been sucking for HD DVD as well.

    This wasn’t done to save a dying format, it was a measure that keeps a format from dying unfairly. The playing field is more level at the moment, so let’s see what a more “fair” competition does in the next few months for both sides.

    edit: and I agree with you Chris — it’s a good idea to do what you need to do in order to watch your favorite movies. It might mean getting both formats, or it might mean looking for HD video-on-demand, or just putting up with up-scaled standard DVDs. In the end, companies have their own agendas, and we just find our ways to adapt.

  5. OGSCORPION Says:

    I agree with Tom. Everybody knows (even HD DVDud fans) that BD sells waay more than HDDVD movies. Everywhere you look (website polls, sales quotas of major reseller stores, even this site, etc.) will say that Blu-ray is THE dominant format. This movement by Paramount with Dreamworks sure is a challenge but it’s nothing that will supersede Blu-ray. Sure enough bluray players are higher than HDDVDs due to the fact that HDDVD players does have alot of faults/error in ‘em (i.e. XBOX 360 HDDVD heating up, dedicated Toshiba HDDVD players skipping during play, etc.) and don’t forget XBOX 360’s hefty repairs due to overheat. On the PS3/blu-ray player side, there are almost to a none issue with all of the BD players. To me, paying extra for an HD player when it comes to stability and reliability is a must. Not just me, millions of PS3 minions agree. Also, please adhere to this statement from your rival site (http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=419). Bottom line is Paramount and Dreamworks WILL come back to Blu-Ray after the 18-month term (maybe less).

  6. OGSCORPION Says:

    As an addition to my previous post. Don’t get me wrong. I do also believe in what Bay has said that let the consumers decide on what format to choose. I am, too, are in favor of equality (it’s just one way of keeping the war interesting). It just sucks that the consumers are being cought in between this format war while all the studio corporate peeps gets rich.

  7. Rwarner174 Says:

    Please show me a link to a similar blu-ray deal?
    I would love to see a link where blu-ray paid a stuido off?
    Good luck in your search.

  8. Pravin Says:

    I provided a link to the EU investigation over the Blu-ray exclusivity. That’s a real government body that thinks something fishy is going on over in Europe, and conducting a real investigation into those business practices.

    Exclusivity deals usually means that palms were greased, or that there’s a parent company involved.

    Unless I’m wrong, Disney, Sony, Fox, etc. are all their own parent companies.

  9. Rwarner174 Says:

    But they have no evidence, if they had eveidence than the case would be settled.
    And if they can’t win in europe they will not win anywhere.
    Show me the evidence that it has occured, not hearsay.

  10. Pravin Says:

    Even if the evidence stared at you directly in the face, as this Paramount deal does for HD DVD — and I’m blatantly acknowledging it — a staunch Blu-ray supporter would still find a way to discount that information.

    Both of our reactions in this matter are predictable.

  11. Tom Says:

    Pravin -The blockbuster announcement came at a time when 70% of their rentals were bluray. There is only so much shelf space for an early technology that not too many people have adopted yet. Therefore it makes perfect sense to have a format that is selling more in their stores and only sell both formats online. They still allow consumers to have an option of online HDDVD sales, which is not a total shaft to the HDDVD format. Blockbuster intelligently decided that the Bluray format was the consumer preferred in their stores and made a decision based on that. It would be totally different if it was the other way around and HDDVD accounted for 70% of their HD rentals, but that wasnt the case. The Blockbuster announcement is irrelevent to my argument above and is an honest business decision based on good information and trends.

    http://www.trustedreviews.com/tvs/news/2007/06/19/HD-DVD-Trouble-Blockbuster-Picks-Blu-ray/p1

  12. Vin Says:

    OGSCORPION, please try to refrain from the mindless fanboyism. BRD did not always sell “waay more than HDDVD movies”. This whole upswing is a rather recent event, that mainly happens to nicely coincide with the mandatory inclusion of a BR player in the PS3. Don’t get me wrong, Sony is free to create their product in such a manner. But you seem to be playing a bit fast and loose with your history there. Further, as no one knows what the next 18 months will give us, to make a blanket statement that they “WILL come back” after 18 months and perhaps even less (which would go against their contract) is rather presumptuous.

    BTW, is anyone else having an issue with the “Recent Comments” section running into and hiding part of the comments section?

  13. Pravin Says:

    I posted about Blockbuster’s move back when it happened and presented a few points in their favor.

    The numbers they presented were all true, however they completely ignored the business sense about waiting for a Christmas survivor. Advice about waiting for Christmas sales results abounds on the web, but a retail/rental place choosing a side so early into the game smells a little fishy.

    Obviously, I’m on the side that had something to lose, so it smells fishier to me than for someone on the side that clearly benefits from that news.

    Vin: I’ve checked on Firefox and IE7, and the only way the “Recent Comments” crowds the comments is if I size my window too skinny. If it persists for you, please email me directly (check the About page) and I’ll get some more information about the problem.

    UPDATE: A couple of sites have picked up on this PC World interview with Paramount CTO, Alan Bell, which makes for interesting reading. He points out plenty of positive things about the HD DVD format which make this a good decision for Paramount.

  14. Bret Says:

    I’m just curious, but what do you think about Toshiba’s offer for a unified format, or making the two formats compatible with one another? I’m sort of new to this whole debate, but what I’ve gathered is that at present Sony and Blu Ray are winning this little war. While HD DVD got out there first to get a quick lead, Blu Ray is fought back and took that lead with a better product. What does the HD DVD player offer besides a cheaper price? I mean, when I sit down to think about it, aren’t we in the end thinking of storage space? More space for more data, uncompressed sound and audio? I’ll admit that I am biased, being a PS3 owner, and having owned all the playstations before that. If Microsoft did not loosely back HD DVD and put it standard in the XBox 360, I think we’d be witnessing a different battle here. But seeing as Sony owns much of media for distribution, i.e. the Playstation 3, Sony Pictures, and Blu Ray, this war with an electronical giant leading and the whole corporation backing a single product to ensure their future, I just don’t see how it can lose.

  15. Pravin Says:

    Hi Bret — I thought many of the same things you did about Blu-ray being a shoe-in, and completely expected to be a PS3 guy myself. However it turns out that a lot of the supposed technical advantages about extra storage, etc. have not materialized into anything appreciably better yet, and that HD DVD is a perfectly fine medium.

    The offer for a unified format happened a long, long time ago, but the two sides did not see eye-to-eye and thus the first HD DVD player came out, followed by the PS3 some months later. Though Toshiba and Sony have worked together on other projects, the disc format is something where they couldn’t find common ground.

    To me, this format war is similar to the DVD-R and DVD+R battle. DVD+R came from a heavier weight group of companies than DVD-R, and they used their marketing and distribution muscle to establish themselves. Today, all DVD burners handle both formats, regardless of which side the manufacturers were originally on.

    I fully expect the same kind of thing to happen with DVDs, and I’m glad I got to enter the whole thing from the less expensive side by getting HD DVD first. Just as I did with DVD-R.