Second-guessers are defined as people who come up with explanations based totally on the benefit of hindsight. In other words, they already know what the outcome is, and they have a field day coming up with lots of theories and explanations as to how that outcome could have been avoided.

“Monday morning quarterbacks” (named after people who talk about the football games played on Sunday) can take comfort in the fact that their theories will never get to be tested. In fact, this lack of accountability probably allows many of the theories to get as wacky as possible.

We can usually put up with reasonable theories, but the second-guessers with the most complicated or outlandish theories tend to get annoying. Even more so if theories are based on just the tiniest bit of ignorance about the subject matter.

This theory talk reminds me of Occam’s Razor, a principle stating that the most plausible explanation is the least complicated one — the one that asks you to make the fewest assumptions. For example, if only two factors are required for a certain thing to occur, then that’s all a theory needs to contain. While a third or fourth factor might contribute, if they’re not essential, then you leave them out. I’m sure someone might have another way to put it, but I hope you get the general idea.

We’re heading into a period where at least half or more of the population of high-def format war participants are about to offer their explanations about the current state of affairs for HD DVD. Some will attribute it all to one company like Microsoft, Toshiba, or Sony, while other theories may implicate a group, or an entire industry.

I’m not much for second-guessing. Sure, I might have a few ideas and could talk up a storm about who could have done what, but we have no choice but to live in the present and deal with situations as they come up. Each one of has our own capacity to deal with various challenges, and we react accordingly.

Having said all that…

The latest news from Japanese broadcaster NHK is that the Toshiba HD DVD mothership is suspending production. Conveniently, or not, this news came out on a Friday which means that there’s unlikely to be any official word from either the Japanese or other offices until Monday.

That leaves all weekend for plenty of speculation and second guessing of the highest quality.

I’m going to redirect your discussion desire to the forums at High-Def Digest:

• High-Def Digest forums