HD DVD Market Share Bounces Back: NPD
by Pravin on January 29th, 2008 in news.
Following the high-def disc news ends up being quite a lesson in statistics, and I’m glad I paid attention to it when I was in school. Luckily, one does not need a college degree to figure out some of the stuff that comes up in the format war, because much of it appears to be common sense.
It was only about a week ago that someone on the Blu side leaked NPD sales data which suggested Blu-ray had won the war within days of CES. Both Toshiba and the NPD group came out to say that one week of data is not sufficient to label a trend, and that you need to look at more weeks of sales figures.
Well, it’s the week after, folks, and it’s time to see whether Toshiba was truthful in saying that customers have responded favorably to lowered prices. In the doomsday week, HD DVD players had only 7% of the week’s total sales, but that has come back up to 34% the week after, which is closer to the usually higher number that’s seen for HD DVD players.
Now, I’m going to have my own fun to get back at a lot of headlines I’ve seen in the last few days. All in the spirit of statistics, mind you…
Going from 7% to 34% in the last couple of weeks — hey, that’s nearly 485%! At that rate, Blu-ray might as well throw in the towel right now, because we can clearly and quite logically project HD DVD to be at 100%, maybe even 200%, market share in just a matter of weeks. w00t! Hey, get me a Gartner or other research analyst on the phone, they need to see this!
- Source: DVDTown.com
January 29th, 2008 at 11:50 am
HD DVD is still in the minority, and has been for a long time, so I’m going to continue to watch what unfolds. I prefer HD DVD, but the fear of a dead format in a year or two that I so happened to buy in to keeps me distant. I’m staying out until Blu-Ray’s 2.0 profile comes around, and look at the state of affairs then. 1080i On Demand stuff’ll have to do for now.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Do you feel that selling half the units count for 1/6 of the revenue, after halving the player price, is somehow a good thing?
Wasn’t the whole point that cheaper players were supposed to generate more HD DVD households than BD households?
Personally, I expect to see more retailers follow Circuit City and call it a day for HD DVD hardware.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Revenue is irrelevant to me as a consumer. It’s just a way to try and spin the news one way or another, and just part of the statistics game that goes on. It’s the 2008 equivalent of talking about attach rates.
The video game console business has been built upon sacrificing money on the main unit in the first couple of years in order to establish a solid installed base. The cost of production usually gets cheaper and the manufacturers break even. Sony has made great strides towards losing less money on each PS3, and Microsoft already reached that point months ago on the 360. According to a recent story, Apple is taking a loss on the AppleTV as well.
The real money is in the software. Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo make a few dollars on every game sold, whether they made that game or not. Apple will make a lot of money on all the rentals. In Toshiba’s case, they’re betting on the money to be made in the longer term from HD DVD licensing.
Losing tens of millions or hundreds of millions today is nothing compared to the billions that are at stake.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Revenue is not important to the consumer. It is important to the retailer. They make significantly more profit selling a Blu-ray player than an HD DVD player – and that gap is getting larger with the lower retail pricing.
Shelf space needs to generate profit for the retailers – HD DVD is increasingly performing relatively poorly in that sense. That is why I expect to see more retailers follow Circuit City and call it a day for HD DVD hardware.
Is availability important to you as a consumer?
I agree that the software is most important. How has that been going this year for HD DVD?
January 29th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I am pretty sure that retailers are taken care of during manufacturer-driven price drops and they’ll get rebates to make up for the sales promotions. In fact, if you read the explanation given as to why HD DVD failed in that other week, they mentioned that some rebate had expired right around that time, and I know that they weren’t talking about a rebate directly to the consumer.
There’s no doubt that Blu-ray players generate more revenue for the retailers, and that alone is a big motivator for them to favor the format when they can. The weekly sales volumes for Blu-ray and HD DVD players (even when HD DVD had its 50% share weeks), are barely into the teens of thousands, and the formula of making up the money by sheer volume is probably not happening just yet on HD DVD players.
Circuit City has had a really crappy year all along, while Best Buy has done exceedingly well. I’d sort of expect them to be more risk-averse, and focus on the more profitable product lines as much as possible. If they were in a stronger position, they might have been more positive about the format, but I can understand their move. In the spirit of the NPD numbers game that this posting was about, Circuit City by itself is not a trend, and it takes more retailers to come out and do the same thing.
Regarding movies, the January release slate was planned months ahead, and it was already headed for major suckdom to begin with. It’s not a reflection of the formats, but of the studios and their decision-making process. For example, there was a recent week last year when the bulk of the Blu-ray titles were just aquarium and fireplace titles, so it’s not like the other side has killer weeks every single month.
I must also not be fully appreciating the big impact that Daddy Day Camp, The Game Plan, and High School Musical 2 are having in the high-def movie scene. No wonder the Blu fans are so excited. When I get a PS3 this summer, I’ll have to make sure to add these titles to my Netflix queue and see what I missed from January of 2008
January 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
It is interesting to see ‘mildly interesting’ titles like 3:10 to Yuma, Resident Evil 3 and Shoot em Up filling the top 10 HD media sales.
For two weeks we have not seen an HD DVD title in the top 10 at all. This means that Mr Woodcock outsold Transformers, The Kingdom and The Bourne Ultimatum.
Interestingly, both The Game Plan and Daddy Day Camp had roughly twice the box office of The Kingdom (which was the top HD DVD week ending Jan 20), So I would expect the dismal HD DVD software ratios to continue for a few more weeks even with this ‘lower tier’ titles.
Perhaps this is another attempt to set the bar low in Q1 so that they can report ‘incredible market share gains’ in Q2, like they did last year… only this year time is running out.
January 29th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
It is fun to watch everyone cry foul when things turn around. Not that things have turned around, yet. But none the less, you cannot say the Hi Def format war is over. Funny how Underdog was mentioned. Toshiba (and HD DVD) is, unfortunally for me, the underdog. But you cannot rule out the underdog. For example: Who the F*ck thought the NY Giants would be in the superbowl? Who also would have thought HD DVD would still be alive after WB’s backstabbing?
BD fans like HD DVD fans are stubborn, and like to flaunt numbers when things are going their way. Things still are not going good for HD DVD, but this was some good news in a time of bad news. So for now it is just best that we agree to disagree, and keep thinking that one format is better than the other.
January 29th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
You’re an absolute idiot….
…[snip]…
You should just shut down your site you flame and quit spreading your flame lies
January 29th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Transformers is a title from October, and I wouldn’t expect it to keep selling strong all the way into January. I don’t think any single Blu-ray or DVD title has enjoyed that kind of success either in the last couple of months.
The reason that the Blu-ray titles dominate disc sales is because those movies are always on sale. When HD DVD movies go on sale at Amazon, those titles end up doing really well on the Amazon charts, and get really competitive with their Blu-ray counterparts. This happened in a big way last December when the first HD DVD BOGO arrived.
Alas, these sales on HD DVD have been less frequent than for Blu-ray. I know this from my own experience of waiting on and reporting on HD DVD BOGO promotions at all retailers.
Movie enjoyment is a subjective experience. Big box office doesn’t make a movie better than one with worse box office results. A lot of movies earn more critical acclaim than money, but you may still not want to watch them on disc or screen.
In the case of the movies I mentioned (Daddy Day Care and The Game Plan), I just didn’t think that those particular titles are driving people to go high-def. You’d be laughing at HD DVD if those movies were all we had coming out on the format this week, admit it.
What needs to happen for HD DVD is more sales on the movies that people want to buy. Nothing can be done about format-exclusive titles, but there are many long-awaited titles in the vaults that fans are eagerly waiting for. As you mentioned, Dave, this had better happen really fast, or else there will be a ton more Monday-morning quarterbacking in the months ahead.
January 29th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Actually, ‘K’ you should stop visiting this site.
Don’t they have a site for you to hang out at?
Go here: http://forums.highdefdigest.com/forumdisplay.php?f=6
I think it’s the right place for the energy and enthusiasm you have for Blu-ray. You can start a fight with more people than just me.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
I disagree with your ‘always on sale’ idea. If you look at the top 10 last week you see a number of the 2008 movies in there that are not on sale. For example, Good Luck Chuck, 3:10 to Yuma, Pirates: At World’s End, Planet Earth: Collection, Resident Evil: Extinction, Blade Runner and Mr. Woodcock were not in any promotion that I was aware of – there is 7 out of the top 10 right there.
While Daddy Day Care (rated 1.8/10 at IMDb!) and The Game Plan are not top titles, they are titles. The thing that makes me laugh (or cry?) is that the HD DVD releases are even less compelling (the only HD DVD exclusive this week is Die Fledermaus). I would not at all be surprised to see these two do ‘well’ in the face of no competition, just like Good Lick Chuck and Mr Woodcock.
For some reason Universal and Paramount/DreamWorks seem to be slacking off. Warner has more HD DVD releases scheduled than U and PDW put together. That is not a good sign, especially moving forward when those titles get discontinued.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Quite honestly I find the fact that films are making shuch a slow move to any high def disc rather disturbing. It shows that no one is REALLY confident that HDDVD or BluRay will replace SDDVD before yet another new format jumps in. As I recall once DVD players became affordable video tape disappeared in fast order. High Def formats have been around better than 2 years now and still only have about 3% market share combined. War? Not likely, unless it is a battle among the fleas. I am a great fan of high def and have players in each format but I think we tend to overstate it’s place in the market and the number of new releases in both formats speaks to that.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
Recent news indicates that the new formats have a faster growth curve than DVD did in its time, especially with respect to player sales partly due to the pricing ‘war’…
I think we tend to imagine that DVD took over faster than it really did. There were plenty of nay-sayers back then too as I recall…
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
well… there goes the circuit city HDDVD clearance sales.
January 29th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
DaveC I have two things I’ve noticed you’ve completely and utterly ignored.
1) Circuit City corporate has stated that they are not discontinuing carrying HD DVD, it was what they called a pricing error, but I suspect it was more likely a Blu-ray supporting District or Regional manager changed the prices to try to make it look like they were being dropped.
2) Look at the selection of new HD DVD vs new Blu-ray in the past couple weeks, it doesn’t take much to control the top 10 when there is nothing out worth buying, old titles don’t normally show back up on sales charts 2 months after release, but then you wouldn’t understand that seeing that Blu-ray had 4 old titles on the week Transformers came out thanks to a BOGO.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
…” At that rate, Blu-ray might as well throw in the towel right now,”…really?
January 29th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
That still looks pretty blue.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Yeah…riiiight. 100%, 200% market share….keep the DUDs dreaming. That is how far they can get anyways.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
@Robert: how about going one sentence earlier where I said, “I’m going to have my own fun…”
@ogscorpion: ditto for you. Congrats on finally getting a comment approved here by the way! I wish I had an award for you for all the times you’ve tried.
@Jast3r: you missed the point, which was that the HD DVD numbers did not stay in the single digits, but actually bounced back. If you follow this particular set of numbers more closely, HD DVD ends up with closer to half or more than that each time.
January 30th, 2008 at 3:57 am
What I expect to see is that HD DVD players sales keep raising. Don’t forget that Amazon best sales HD player is a HD DVD player. Don’t forget that Warner has already overlapped their no HD DVD period because they want to release a title on HD DVD… As HD DVD sales go strong Warner might release more titles if it makes sense. It’s all about the big bucks. Maybe they hoped their switch would kill HD DVD… but if it doesn’t they will follow where the money is.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:34 am
Pravin, nice report, thanks for the update.
As far as some of the other posters, it’s just pathetic. I thought Blu “won”, didn’t it? If so, why such apparent insecurity in your win?
January 30th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Those charts include the PS3 as bluray players or is just the standalone players?
January 30th, 2008 at 7:16 am
In one of those twists designed to keep all of this bean counting interesting, this particular set of NPD numbers is only about standalone players and does not count PS3s.
The other twist is about which retailers are covered in the sales, and how come certain ones are and others are left out.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:11 am
this is no good….
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/National_Geographic/Industry_Trends/National_Geographic_Makes_Move_to_Blu-ray_Exclusivity/1417
January 30th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
what i dont get it how toshiba think they can compete with the worlds most well known video game system? You can yell all you want “ps3 is a GAME system!!!” anyway you want to throw it the PS3 IS a blu ray player and a good one at that. and with the 40gb goin for only $399 only consuers that arent informed about the ps3 full capabilites are gonna go for the hd dvd player, regardless if they play games of not.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
@roundel: they’re sort of under that Warner wing, so some of that is to be expected. On the other hand, I’m sure most HD DVD owners are eager to get real movies more than they are to get documentary kinds of titles.
@joe: you’re a gamer so it’s a no-brainer to you about the PS3. I have all the game consoles from the last gen, and it’s inevitable that I’ll complete my set for this gen and pick up a PS3 as well. But a non-gaming customer doesn’t really see the same value in a dvd player that happens to play games as a gamer does. You can actually pick up a HTIB (home theater in a box kit) for about the same price that a PS3 goes for. I’m not saying those are awesome systems, but just pointing out that non-gamers are more interested in the disc aspect foremost before thinking about $60 games they may never play.
January 30th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Mark:
There are plenty of people who have posting pictures of signs that clearly have the word Clearance on the Circuit City players. Whether or not it is nationwide, it is certainly happening.
I agree that the poor software performance is at least partially caused by a lack of titles for HD DVD. The question remains… why is there a lack of release titles? Do Universal and Paramount even care? Are they in to win or just to meet some kind of contractual obligation?
Also, old releases 300 and Planet Earth were in the Blu-ray top 10 – both of these are also available on HD DVD, and obviously sold much better on Blu-ray (300 of course has lost HD DVD sales due to the bundling).
January 30th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
It takes a few months to get a disc into the pipeline, so Universal and Paramount would have had to be getting cold feet back in October if this theory about them not “feeling it” for the format is true. I doubt that very much. Once they get these discs started up, they pretty much have to follow through – witness the availability of Warner’s The Invasion in stores, despite their new 3-week delay policy. A “cold feet” mentality would show up more in the 2Q and 3Q release slate.
The PS3 is why Blu-ray software sales do so well. Lots of gamers bought PS3s, way more than are buying HD DVD or Blu-ray standalones. All they need to do is buy a movie once in a while, and it’s good enough to make a big showing on the sales charts. Just 10% of the few million PS3 owners buying a movie or two generates a lot of sales in the small world of high-def disc sales.
The attach rate is low, but the incredibly large installed base makes its presence known easily.
Regarding Circuit City, I’ve heard that the new boxes for HD DVD players no longer bundle 300, and they come with Bourne Ultimatum instead. It’s possible that CC is “clearing out” the old boxes. So it would be true that they’re having a clearance sale on a discontinued product, but in the bigger picture, they may still be offering the product line. I’m not saying that this is what’s happening, but we have some ambiguity in the news about the CC “clearance” because CC hasn’t come out with a corporate statement explaining their position yet, and we’ve only heard about the “clearance” from store managers.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
concerning M. van Halen’s comment: “Don’t forget that Warner has already overlapped their no HD DVD period because they want to release a title on HD DVD… As HD DVD sales go strong Warner might release more titles if it makes sense. It’s all about the big bucks. Maybe they hoped their switch would kill HD DVD… but if it doesn’t they will follow where the money is.”
They never extended another three weeks. Then first article I ever read on the 5th of January, said warner would stop releasing hd-dvd after May, 31, 2008. I don’t know how these rumors started. They’re not waiting to see if they should change their mind.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Warner did extend, but only in the sense that that movies released in May will still come out three weeks later in June.
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35741/98/
Anything they come out with in June and beyond will only be on Blu-ray.
I doubt they’ll change their minds since the big damage has already been done.
January 30th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
@cliff – Warner decided to go ahead and release Twister on HD DVD 3 weeks after launch of Blu-ray, this pushes the release into June.
January 30th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I appreciate that it takes a few months for the pipeline. The case that Shoot Em Up is a ‘BD only encode’ release from New Line in early January perhaps indicates how long ago the Time Warner family knew what was going to happen in early January.
The question remains – why does HD DVD have nothing coming out in January, and only 11 future titles announced from Paramount, DreamWorks and Universal combined? Sony has 23 titles announced alone. Disney and Warner both have at least 11 announced. Those 11 exclusive titles account for 16% of the current major studio announcements for 2008 (including this weeks releases)…
Tell me any way to interpret this as a good thing for HD DVD…? If it has to do with ‘planning’, then they are planning the failure of the format if you ask me…
January 30th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
@ Joe, the ONLY reasons I would buy a PS3 (Piece of Sh*t 3) are for games not the BD player, there are people like me that don’t give a f*ck that this overrated system plays HD movies. I have not purchased a PS3 only because I cannot warrant a $500 (80 GB ver.) system for 2 $60 games(Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, MGS4). You could compare the PS3 only if Toshiba made a next-gen game system, but they don’t. They make HD DVD players, that have been perfect since inception. Profile what?
If I were to buy a BD player it most definitly would not be a PS3, but a stand-alone player. Anyone who has ever worked in electronics retail knows combos are sh*t. I never used my PS2 as a DVD player, so why would I use a $400 GAME system to play movies instead of games????? I have an XBOX 360 and two HD DVD players(living rm A2, bed rm A3) notice how even though the HD DVD add on is a seperate drive I still do not want to ruin a $480(elite) system by playing movies. Why would you ever use a game system to play movies? The whole point of a GAME system is for games, period.
What Sony should do is market some good 1st party games instead of pushing the BD player. Gamers want good, wait GREAT, exclusive games and not be told over and over that your new system plays BD. Sure it is a nice add on to get “players” into the market, but gamers know what they are buying and what it does before purchasing. Anyone who would spend $400 on a video game system without getting all the information about it is stupid, let alone retarded.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Dave, how about this simple-minded explanation about why Universal and Paramount haven’t planned more releases in the year: maybe they figured they were just a couple of the contributing studios and that other studios like Warner’s family would make up the difference?
With Warner’s departure, the release slate is a lot emptier and it draws more attention to the small number of titles that Universal and Paramount have announced.
Some of the same can be said about Fox’s rather slow deployment of releases in 2007. Sure, we might accept the statement that they were holding out for better DRM controls on Blu-ray, but who’s to say they weren’t actually having doubts about the format?
Anybody can throw out all the theories they want to. It’s especially nice if you can come up with one that casts a negative light on the opposition. Like this one I just made up about Fox.
We may not know until several months later exactly what’s going on, or has been going on, with these studios and why they do what they do.
Regarding New Line’s movie, they already had this policy about delaying HD DVD releases because of region coding any way:
http://www.highdefdigest.com/tags/show/New_Line
is a collection of articles demonstrating this fact. It’s not a surprise that they had the Blu-ray version of a movie ready to go, and could now conveniently just skip the HD DVD release.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Rick I agree with most of your comments, however I did get a 360 HD-DVD drive and am very happy with it. I owned a 360 and got a good deal on the drive, so there is one less component now that can clutter my HT setup, because it just sits atop my 360. I actually am only a light gamer, so the add-on drive was a perfect way for me to get into the world of HD. For those without a 360, then by far a Toshiba player is the best buy now.
So far I haven’t been disappointed with the selection of movies at all from Universal/Paramount and Dreamworks, and even some WB titles get a lot more special features than the same movies on Blu-Ray. And let’s not forget BBC’s films such as Planet Earth, and Universal TV series including BSG and Heroes. Also can’t wait for the Star Trek movies!
January 30th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Shoot Em Up is the only one of the New Line titles that features a BD rate encode. The others have the basic movie encoded at bitrates that could be supported by HD DVD, showing that there was a change of thinking for Shoot Em Up. Still, it is just a theory – the change could have been due to any number of factors
It is possible that Universal and P/DW were relying on Warner to carry HD DVD – it makes sense since the Warner slate is over double the Unversal, three times Paramount and six times the Dreamworks number. Warner is/was certainly a key player for HD DVD – even more in sales than title count if you follow the top 5 HD chart for 2007.
In any case, I find it hard to cast the Uni/Para/DW line up in a positive light. Perhaps with the exception that American Gangster and Bee Movie should move some product…
January 31st, 2008 at 6:39 am
@Rick anyone that thinks a ps3 is a Piece of Sh*t 3 really needs to wake up, now if you are talking xbox360?
I can say as hardware engineer, if I released a product with a 30% failure rate I would probably be fired. Even if it was fixed later, it would be a huge failure.
Why in the name of god would anyone support a company that is pretty much at the root of the destruction of computing as we know is beyond me (Windows anyone).
I liken windows to a nice shiny apple that from the outside looks tasty but when you bit in to see whats going on inside you discover nothing but a rotting core. But anyway, I digress.
If by Piece of Sh*t3 you mean a great blu-ray player and great gaming system with a revolutionary parallel hardware design that will change the way games look and play in the future, well then I guess the ps3 is guilty.
Rick, its called denial, and its the toughest step to get by in most 12 step programs, seek help.
Anyway, its really great to see the spin over here, are you sure you guys don’t work as advisers for the democratic party?
January 31st, 2008 at 7:13 am
The PS3 and 360 are both really great machines, and there are better places to argue about that particular format war. I’ve gone from being a Sony bigot with the PS1 and PS2 to appreciating what the Xboxes bring to the table. It’s truly pointless to get into a pissing match about which of those systems is better. It’s really more about the games, and if you’re truly into games then you’ll be format-neutral. My game neutrality happened when I got a GameCube for my kids because it had all the games that were right for them. That naturally led to getting a Wii.
Now that I’m not a game console bigot, I don’t have to miss out on titles just because I chose one format to be entrenched in. My kids can grow up knowing that the hero of “Legend of Zelda” is actually named “Link” and the fun of blowing up a warthog twenty different ways.
It’s similar with this high-def disc format war. If you’re purely into it for the movies, then you’ll be purple and just get the titles when they come out and you feel like getting them. If you’ve ended up on one side for some reason, then there’s really not a whole lot you can change or do by talking smack about the other side. And there’s little that the opposite side can do when they talk smack about you and tell you to convert.
@emdubs, the spin goes around at all political parties. You just tend to notice it more when it comes from the other side.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:59 am
This shouldn’t be turned into PS3 vs. 360 discussion, there are more important things to see here:
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/AQW05530012008-1.htm
January 31st, 2008 at 9:08 am
I’m sure it’s exciting for HD DVD haters to report on all the bad news they can, but that Sonic news is not the big deal that all of you think it is. I’d ask you how many of you have even seen or heard of Scenarist before this (I’ve seen it in action and knew about it back when they used it on DVDs).
It’s like saying that Microsoft Word 2007 creates new files that don’t work in Word 2003 (which is true). This would be bad news, but the fact is that you can keep using Microsoft Word 2003 for as long as you need to. Or some other program.
It’s the same story with this authoring software. Sonic said they’d continue to support their HD DVD customers, and even provide software updates as needed.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:29 am
Pravin, I simply have to disagre with your last statement.
You can not simply continue to use old word software when the majority of people you communicate with sends you files in a newer format. Actually I believe there is a official upgrade/add-on to Word that allows 2003 to use 2007 files to some extent but of course 2007 specific features will be lost. It’s just temporary life support.
The same goes form the HD-DVD/Blu-ray format issue. At some point (regardless of who wins) your oftware and hardware will be obsolete and you will only be able to read your old files and view your old disks respectiviely.
I do not think you need to be a XYZ-hater to see that. It’s a bit of a strong statement isn’t it?
January 31st, 2008 at 10:36 am
I agree with the “old world” idea. Office 2007 does store files in the old format, but not by default, and you can get converters for 2003 to work with 2007 files.
In the case of Sonic’s Scenarist software, it’s a little different. They’re still going to support their HD DVD customers. The only new thing they announced is that their platform will now grow to encompass more Blu-ray authoring features because these new players are going to start coming out with new features.
The upgrade is essential for a Blu-ray developer, but it’s not as important for HD DVD developers simply because the HD DVD platform is not changing in that same kind of way from an authoring standpoint.
Maybe a better example would be: I used Photoshop 5 for a very long time before finally upgrading to the CS3 version. I didn’t need the new features so I didn’t upgrade. I only upgraded when I needed to.
In the same way, Sonic’s decision only matters if Scenarist was an incomplete product in its HD DVD support, and they still had a lot of features to add. I don’t think that was the case, and in turn, an HD DVD developer is not really hurt by this announcement.
January 31st, 2008 at 10:52 am
Well, I make the somewhat guessing assumption that you are not a professional photographer or otherwise using your PhotoShop professionally?
I would think that professional authors of HD media would be somewhat more concerned by the Sonic news than a “happy amateur” (no offence meant by that expression) since these people are more concerned, not only about future support but also of future development of their tools wouldn’t you agree?
We also know that on the commercial market, support for “existing customers” and “old standards” can evaporate very quickly.
In my work as a computer engineer and responsible for several projects at a European research institute, news like the Sonic one makes us very nervous if it is a product that we depend on.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:11 am
The graphics design projects that came my way did not involve doing a whole lot with digital photography, so I did not need to upgrade to CS3 until recently. Besides, CS3 lost some features by no longer including ImageReady in the package. I upgraded because I finally updated my hardware and I was getting tired of doing things manually that are now automated in the latest version.
In my work as a computer programmer, I’ve got embedded Visual C installed for the few projects that need it. There are also software examples in plenty of books that only work in Visual Studio 6 or 2003, and won’t convert properly to 2005, much less 2008 (but I have those versions too). You don’t upgrade just because your software vendor tells you to. You upgrade because the old version is no longer necessary or required for what you do. Or unless there’s a penalty for not upgrading (for example the software license expires and the program shuts down.) Engineering and software labs are filled with lots of old equipment and systems that continue to be used because they still work.
You are right that support commitments are not permanent. However, Scenarist is a very expensive package and I’m pretty sure that Sonic doesn’t take their customers lightly. It’s not a $199 program.
My main point is that people are looking for any bit of bad news about HD DVD, without really understanding what some of this news means. Sometimes it’s a good story and carries a lot of weight. Other times, it’s just another story that means more to the detractor than it does in the bigger picture.
This site is not about bashing the other format. It’s for serving the HD DVD community, however big or small it is. You can’t blame me or the HD DVD supporters for being less receptive to negative stories. There’s no requirement that Blu-ray news be covered here.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:25 am
I’m not blaming you for anything, just stating my opinion (perhaps in a long winded way) that altough the sonic news is hardly earth shattering (as some people make it) perhaps not insignificant either.
Trust me, some of the software we use also VERY expensive and we’re told by he provider that we have to upgrade or loose support
Anyway, I’ll shut up on this one now. Have nice evening or whatever time it is where you are.
January 31st, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Does Blu-Ray play mini-discs? Seriously, I don’t really see a reason why you would support Blu-Ray unless it is because you already have a player (PS3 or stand alone) or because of the movies that are out on that format. It just doesn’t make sense to me. Why on earth would someone want to spend two to four times what they could on a player for basically the same performance? and then feel good justifying it?
We all know Laserdiscs are the way to go!
Pravin, props to you for running the site.
January 31st, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Everyone who thinks HD-dud is going to win, you are as hopeless as your dead format. Do what K said and shut this pathetic site down.
January 31st, 2008 at 6:35 pm
I allow these “hater” comments through now and then so you can all appreciate why comments are so heavily moderated in the first place.
I’m curious why haters even come around. There’s nothing for them to accomplish.
It’s more interesting when you can at least present a few good points. Just coming by to essentially say what the last guy did doesn’t do anything to make your side look that great.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:17 pm
“I’m curious why haters even come around. There’s nothing for them to accomplish.”
well, hddvd.com is not having news (good news) or visits, so they come to cheer up the site
January 31st, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Apparently, I’ve got much more interesting stuff happening at this site than the one that they should be at.
February 1st, 2008 at 10:13 am
“Everyone who thinks HD-dud is going to win, you are as hopeless as your dead format. Do what K said and shut this pathetic site down.
If you find this site pathetic, why are you wasting your precious time posting on it?
February 1st, 2008 at 11:44 am
For the third straight week since Warner Brothers announced they would exclusively support Blu-ray, the format has held a commanding lead in high definition movie sales. Home Media Magazine has released Nielson VideoScan First Alert data, and Blu-ray held 82% of the high definition market during the week ending January 27th.
Also, for the third straight week, all of the Top 10 sellers in high definition are Blu-ray. This week’s top seller was newly released ‘Saw IV’, followed by ‘The Game Plan’ and ‘3:10 to Yuma’. HD DVD is is great for high definition movies but unfortunantly the industry says that there has to be one and more of the industry are leening towards blu-ray
February 1st, 2008 at 11:49 am
Thanks for sharing.
Listen, this site is a resource for people who are into HD DVD.
If you need to talk about your beloved other format, do it elsewhere. I’m done approving any more messages by you Blu-ray “missionaries” who think that there’s only your way and no other.
In my house, there’s only HD DVD. That’s true for many, many people. Whether we go purple or switch is up to us. Anybody who needs information about the other format already knows where to go and get it.
edit: I’m actually ok with a little bit of light debate, but the purpose of this site is to let HD DVD owners know about things that are useful to them. If your only purpose is to be totally negative about the HD DVD format, then this is not the place for you. If you’re really into format war stuff, then I’d highly recommend the site that DaveC is associated with: http://www.formatwarcentral.com because that’s exactly the kind of thing that’s appropriate discussion over there.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
To Silent J.
Do you think it’s at all possible that the primary reason all of the top 10 sellers in HD are Blu is because there haven’t been any high profile HD-DVD releases lately? I mean, this isn’t an unknown piece of info, Pravin’s got it mentioned on the main site.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I’m unsure as to why HD-DVD supporters are so ‘invested’ in their format… The player is dirt cheap (unless they’re purchase a LOT of movies). I do understand why blu supporters are so ‘invested’ because of the expensive hardware they’ve bought and have to justify. You cannot ignore the numbers and the industry movement. At this point, HD-DVD supporters should just cut their losses and jump on blu. Basic market investing 101 strategy.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:04 pm
DavidA: if you had an HD DVD player, and that’s the only player you had, then it would be much easier for you to see why HD DVD owners are invested.
Most of us got in when the prices were $300 and $400. It’s only the most recent owners who have come in at $200 or lower.
We don’t really need to cut any losses. We have players that work with a lot of movies we already have, and there are still discs coming out for the format.
I think a lot of you guys on the other side don’t really try to put yourselves into our shoes, because the best and only advice any of you can come up with is that we should dump our systems.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:20 pm
FTR, I’m not on any side. I just set out today online because I got an HDTV. Been to both blu-ray.com and this site…understand the bias. But i’m also reading many articles from reputable news sources and I’m seeing that the majority of the studios back blu-ray and continue to do so. I have not seen the same migration to hd-dvd. also the sales numbers suggest to me that i would be uniformed if i went out and got an hddvd player.
i understand if you bought a $400 player and I’m not suggesting that you literally ‘dump your system’ I’m sure it works fine and will continue to. But I don’t understand why there is a sentiment out there that there’s still a chance for a resurgance or something. maybe marketing will help (the superbowl commercial)…who knows…it worked it iraq (the resurgence that is, not marketing).
I think that i’ve made the decision to go blu just because i’m a gamer and want a next gen system. it seems that the ps3 will suit both my desires to play games and watch movies in high def. anyone feel free to change my mind while it’s open.
February 1st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I’m curious. Does “Basic market investing 101 strategy” dictate that someone should not only take a loss on a product, but then further compound that loss by repurchasing the exact same product but in a different package? Because that’s exactly what you’re advising here.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
DavidA – you’ve made an educated choice. Many people got PS3s because they’re gamers, and then secondarily realized they were getting involved with a format war. It’s this latter group that tends to come out with the “dump your system, shut down your site, go away” advice.
As to why people get emotionally involved as fans… it happens all the time for all kinds of things. Mustangs vs. Camaros, PCs vs. Macs, Nikons vs. Canons, and on and on
February 2nd, 2008 at 10:05 am
Basic market investing suggests that you stop buying a stock that is going down…unless you feel that it’s at a bottom that will soon ‘pop’
February 2nd, 2008 at 10:19 am
Analogies and metaphors are great, but sometimes they stop holding up as the apples to oranges factor kicks in.
This happens often when people try to explain why it’s good or bad to “steal” the WiFi from a store or neighbor. At some point, Hitler enters the conversation.
By the way, you guys wouldn’t believe the number of “requests” I’ve started getting from some of the “stock market” advisors that I need to shut this site down.
February 2nd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
In the case of the tortoise and the hare; an investor would have put all your money on the hare. When the hare was even further ahead your investor would have called and said “the hare is a winner for sure, you should invest more in him.” and you would have. Meanwhile the tortoise not doing anything quick or sudden continues to grow(race) at a steady pace. You know how the story finishes, the tortoise wins because the hare was so busy with knowing he was ahead, he fell asleep and lost the race. Sony’s next move: Being so overconfident that they are ahead and forgetting to set the alarm!
P.S. Fire your investor!
February 2nd, 2008 at 3:04 pm
You need to close this site if you care of god and country
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I just had to let that one come through.
I didn’t realize that religion and national security were involved.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Pravin, shall we call ourselves “The Satanic Terrorists for HD DVD?”
February 2nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm
mwahahaha
It’s time to unleash the evil plans!
The only thing in our way are a bunch of people whose best defense is to ask us to stop and go away.
February 3rd, 2008 at 8:37 am
A much as I enjoy the occasional dastardly world domination plan, I would like to point out how silly this all is. People don’t root this hard for their team in the Super Bowl (uh Go Giants!)…seriously, do any of us draw a pay check from eithe Sony or Toshiba? Why all the emotional investment in who “wins” the war for a current 3% of the home video market? It is sort of like rooting for the mightiest mouse. I watched Bourne Supremacy last night on my HDDVD player and enjoyed it immensely. And guess what? No one from Sony attacked my home. My children were not taken hostage and my dog (happily) was unharmed. Democracy still reigns and you don’t tug on Superman’s cape. Frankly I think it is a much better idea to spend my time watching a good HDDVD or BluRay movie than it is to coe and throw bricks through the oher guy’s window. My sense is that these companies, when they think about us at all, are having a good laugh over all of this. I think Pravin takes the best approach to all this. Enjoy the format of your choice. Both are good. Enjoy BOTH as I do. But this site is for HDDVD enthusiasts and not for highschool hijinks. I come here for the updates and news that concerns HDDVD. If I wanted to watch people with nothing better to do than to stick their tongues out at each other (metaphorically) over which multi billion conglomerate is whipping the other, I would go to the many flaming boards out there.
February 3rd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Holmes, nice posts but, well I quite frankly would have been quite happy no matter which side would have “won”.
However, as it stands today, with the uncertainty I’m not going to invest in either side. It’s not a matter of how much the player actually costs. I would happily have paid 1 000 dollars (or even Euros) for a good qualiy hardware. In the end it’s not the big investment. It’s a matter of the investment in disks. I currently have a 350+ title library of DVD’s (some people might lautgh at that but I’m quite happy about it) and there is no way I’m going to buy into anything HD as long as it is not sure that my there’s going to be a future support for it.
Now, as I see it now there is a overwhelming advantage for a certain side in this war and all I want is for the war to end so that I can start buy HD material. But that wont happen until the war is over and done with.
I have a lot of friends that are so feed up with this format war that they are saying that they will just skip bying into either blu or red and wait until the next format. Warner said that their decision was based on the fact that they felt that the “window of opportunity” was about to be lost. I know that there are rumours going around that there was some economic incentive causing this switch. I think the Warner statememt is realyy really valid though!
I do not really care. I just want certainty in place of uncertainty.
February 3rd, 2008 at 11:27 am
Jonsson, I have a lot of friends who feel exactly the same way about all this that you do. I certainly understand why anyone would pass up the High Def War at this point. Frankly SDDVD is still excellent and even more so with a decent up converting DVD player. Just pop in a copy of Empire Strikes Back into either a BluRay/HDDVD/Upconverting SD player and you will see what I am driving at. Frankly Sony and Toshiba should have found a way to co-exist when they had the chance. This war certainly has delayed market penetration for high def discs. If you look at the releases for either format, you see that there is so much more available in SD. For instance, you would think we would have seen The Godfather Triology by now. The studios seem to be cherry picking which films make it to HD and which are delayed. Especially so in the TV category, which DRIVES home video. If the studios were really convinced about BluRAy or HDDVD, I suspect they would be more aggressive in their release schedules. Though I am a strong HDDVD supporter and a BluRay owner, I have to wonder if either format will ever dominate before digital downloads become practical and affordable.
February 3rd, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Did not see a Toshiba ad during superbowl. Thought they were supposed to have one. Did I miss it?
February 3rd, 2008 at 8:42 pm
it was there, just not during the big game.
February 3rd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
I missed the game, but according to Engadget, it’s this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWlj5ZX7JmY
Many people at the AVS forum are saying they watched carefully and saw nothing, possibly because it was pre-empted by a local ad, or they picked the wrong moment to step away from the TV.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:11 am
Bathroom time maybe? but yeah, it showed parts of the Transformer movies, Osbourne legacy and pics of the player.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:36 am
To David A, nice job avoiding the question that I raised so that you could bring up an irrelevant talking point. I expected as much.
Pravin, I know they showed it in L.A., but it appears that it didn’t get aired in quite a few areas for some reason.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:00 am
According to High-Def Digest, they only aired the commercial in selected markets. This would explain why some people saw an ad and others didn’t.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Listen PRAVIN, your not looking at the big picture, the High Def picture. I was trying to be nice by merely stating the facts on the other side of the coin.
Everyday that passes, the deck gets stacked against the HD DVD format from National Geographic to Manga Films now support the BLU-RAY format. Now thay
may be little cards in a big deck but when you have 7 out of the 9 major motion picture studios that back the BLU-RAY format and 2 out of the 9 major motion picture studios in support of the HD DVD format, those are horrible odds surviving the format war. Can the HD DVD format survive in time for blockbusters like Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk to hit the shelves? I really don’t think so. These movie execs are in the money making business and they won’t and they can’t continue to support a dying format and lose money. Two block busters are NOT enough to win the format war, it just puts it on life support. Now I could very easly call you names for supporting a dying format and not using your head by waiting for the dust to clear and then make an educated purchase after the format war is resolved. BUT I AM NOT!!! I AM NOT AN HD DVD HATER, I own both because I wanted to make sure that I could buy the high def movies I wanted, despite their format. I mean I could tell you that your on the Betamax side of the format war. But that’s NOT NICE. It doesn’t matter to me whether you approve of this message or not just so that you read this message and get the REAL point and not be so closed minded on one format for another. FOR THE RECORD I AM FORMAT NEUTRAL because I own both.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I don’t think I’ve been called so many names since I was in high school, or hung out with some of college friends on particularly exuberant days.
Silent J – I’m showing you that I’m just fine with presenting better discussion at the site.
For the Blu and Blu-leaning: I’m going to reiterate that this is not the “Hurray for Blu-ray” site. I’m under no obligation to cover anything other than HD DVD here. There are many HD DVD users who just want to enjoy their systems, and that’s who this site is for. Coming by to tell us about your other world may feel good to you, but it’s mostly irrelevant here.
It’s like bringing hamburgers to a vegetarian party. Might make you feel good, but that’s not what the party is about.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
To add to this, do you really think that the studios are making money at the moment on Blu-Ray either? Both formats are far too small in numbers to generate any serious revenue. DVD is currently, and for the short term future at least, where the bulk of the profits are. And funny enough, I don’t see any studio defections from the DVD format yet. : )
And not to “me-too” you Pravin, but exactly why are you supposed to be obligated to be supportive of Blu-Ray, or even format neutral either? That’s like going to Blu-Ray.com and getting upset that they’re “too Blu” or something.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Bingo!
People are complaining that a site named HDDVD.com only covers HD DVD, and might not be overly accomodating to people with opposing views.
ya think? Hmm, I wonder what happens at the other site…
February 4th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Wait, I am no vegan…. LOL, but for HD DVD I am willing to convert!
February 4th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Pravin, I too own both formats just like Silent J…. unlike him though I don’t get fired up over this format war. I agree that this site should be for hd dvd owners looking for news and information on their format of choice. Thats why I come here. When I’m looking for blu ray news I go to other sites. People like Silent J I have found are usually not coformat owners but just state they are so they can make cracks and sound more knowledgable when they usually aren’t. Fact is hd dvd probably does have its days numbered which is a shame since it is a more complete and better movie watching format and has been from the beginning. My point I guess is that people should enjoy what they have and quit wasting time getting mad over something like a disc when there are so many other things in this world worth getting mad over.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Does anyone have an estimate of how long it takes for your 5 free DVDs to show up?
I sent in my request in November- should I expect to wait a little longer?
Thanks for any responses.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Jerimy….a LONNNNNNNG time. I waited nearly six months but they DO come eventually
February 4th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
It feels like forever, but they do eventually come. A lot of players were sold in November and December, and it’s likely that you’re part of the increased workload on those shippers, so your wait might be a little longer.
You can call in to see if they can track the progress of your shipment. I’m not sure how reliable that information is because I’ve read on the AVS forum where some people were told to wait a little longer, but got their discs just a few days later.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
I like hamburguers
February 4th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
I prefer a good steak. Belgian Blue anybody?
(Sorry couldn’t resist).
February 4th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Hmmm… A lot of people, especially around here, prefer RED meat.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Touche!
February 5th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Pravin check:
http://charts.highdefdigest.com/history.aspx?TYPE=100&SPAN=7
Chart past 30 days customized graph blur vs hddvd. Can anybody explain? A steep curve for Hdvd sales on Amazon.
February 5th, 2008 at 9:44 am
First off, I’m glad that many of us are able to have fun discussing these topics. If there was more of this particular kind of discussion, I wouldn’t have to have any kind of comment moderation policy.
Regarding that sales chart…
All that ever needs to happen is discs need to get cheap one way or another, and the HD DVD installed base responds immediately.
Sure, big name movies do bring people out in droves, but sales phenomena like this demonstrates that people like many of the movies that have already come out, and they’d buy more if prices were cheaper across the board on all titles.
DaveC corrected me when I said that Blu-ray movie sales happen “all the time” but they do happen more frequently. We just need to see a lot more of those for HD DVD. It had started in December, and we just need to have at least one of these BOGO deals a month, and people will see that the red slice of the market share pie will get over that 35% and 40% hump it’s been stuck at.
By the way, depending on when someone clicks through to that chart link, the sales numbers might show HD DVD back down as soon as the sales end, and I’m sure certain people will come out in droves to gloat about it.
February 6th, 2008 at 9:06 am
WOW! that’s incredible, if they are counting the undreds of thousands of free HDDVDs they are giving away just to clear all the stocks
*yes, I know you are going to delete this message because you only want to hear good news, of course, the few good (and altered) news*
February 6th, 2008 at 10:31 am
I didn’t delete your message because it helps establish why I moderate these in the first place.
You should educate yourself a little better before making public statements that you can’t back up.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Hello.
I’ts good to see the bargains of the HDDVD, and how this is helping in making grow the format, the HDDVD external units for the Xbox360 are now $129 in Ebay and they are selling like hotcakes, just got the mine this morning
February 6th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Well I guess I am one of the new supporters of HDDVD. I went out looking for a good up convert player, hoping to bring my few dvd’s to a reasonable size on my tv. When I saw that I could get a HDDVD player for a reasonable price, I picked one up.. The ability to play HDDVD is just a bonus a rather nice one.
February 6th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
someone can confirm this news? I want to get one external drive for my 360 but this news kept me on stand by for now
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20080206124802_Microsoft_May_Be_Preparing_Another_Price_Cut_for_Xbox_360_HD_DVD_Drive.html
February 6th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
$129 is the price right now. Could they drop it more? Is that what you’re asking?
I doubt it would drop to $79 as its list price for quite a while. The $129 price leaves a lot of room for retailers to discount it to $100. For example, Amazon attracted a ton of attention today for selling it at $79 on the first day of the $129 price announcement.
February 6th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
yup, that was my question, another drop on the price is very attractive
February 7th, 2008 at 9:55 am
“Going from 7% to 34% in the last couple of weeks — hey, that’s nearly 485%! At that rate, Blu-ray might as well throw in the towel right now, because we can clearly and quite logically project HD DVD to be at 100%, maybe even 200%, market share in just a matter of weeks.”
How can you say that. I admire you for taking a positive spin but Blu-ray is still way ahead of HD DVD in hardware (+ the PS3 hasnt been counted in this) and that week, the software was 83:17!
February 7th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Go up one sentence where I said I was going to “have fun” with the numbers.
It’s important to understand what the author is really saying, and not react to what you think the author is saying.