Study results from the NPD group show that 73% of HDTV owners claimed to be satisfied with their current DVD player and felt no need to go high-def via either Blu-ray or HD DVD. Only 11% of them expressed a strong interest in buying a high-def player in the next six months, with 62% stating they’re waiting for prices to come down.

In an interview at Beta News, NPD analyst Russ Rubin points out that some consumers only start seeing the differences between up-converted movies versus those playing on high-def players when things are pointed to them.

Another executive NPD analyst said that “Once consumers become convinced of the superiority of high-def, and find a way to navigate the format issues, there will be a great deal of pent-up demand for HD DVD or Blu-ray content.”

These reports of consumer ignorance are consistent with news from a Best Buy study where it seems that lots of people enter into an HDTV purchase without really knowing what they’re getting into. The survey polled 1,012 customers from August 3 to August 5, and found that 89% of people admitted to lacking a proper understanding of HDTV technology. Nearly half (48%) of customers don’t account for the fact that they’ll probably also need to sign up for some kind of HD service from cable or satellite (and probably invest in a high-definition player too).

Irrespective of your “format war” stance, what have your HD experiences been compared to your fence-sitting friends? Other than complaints about cost and movie availability, do they make any compelling arguments for sitting out of the game for so long? The one I hear a lot (it comes up in that Rubin interview) is that digital downloads are the way of the future.

Taking a clue from what happened with music and iTunes, yes, movie downloads are a certain inevitability, but the world of home theater PCs and similar devices is even more complicated than anything people think they might be seeing with high-def DVD formats. The easiest solutions involve getting a dedicated box of some kind, while the home theater PC route often requires setting up a wireless or wired network, and dealing with the multiple ways to get your content downloaded (illegal and legal), and displayed. It’s not the same thing as popping a disc into a player, and it’s also much more expensive.

Maybe it’s just me, but I like physical media. I like having the box and its pictures, and a shelf where I store and show off the collection. I’ve had numerous hard drives crash over the years, and I can’t imagine locking up my movie collection onto a device. Another problem with downloads is that they can’t be shared with friends.

I’m not saying there’s no future in movie downloads, but just that I think it’s too high-tech of a solution to become the clear replacement for discs for a loooong time. I also think that the “downloads are coming” argument is just a way for some people to procrastinate and put things off for another two or three years – at which point they’ll have the next excuse ready such as, “the downloads aren’t 1080p.”